January 23, 2012
Posted by David Karpf
Three Perspectives on Online Virality
There’s a fun anti-Citizens United video that made the rounds last week (see below). It features big thinkers explaining problems with the campaign finance system, while goofing around with Internet memes – keyboard cat, geyser videos, kids being cute, etc.
I like the video. It’s not going to get a million views or radically change American jurisprudence or anything, but it’s a well-executed communications tactic – fun and informative, appealing to the audiences who are likely to engage in further collective action on this topic.
The video got me thinking about the nature of online virality. For the video’s producers, “going viral” is a premise for a joke. Specifically, “cat videos go viral, serious commentary doesn’t.” There’s truth there, but it’s inexact. The lion’s share (har, har) of cat videos don’t go viral. Last month, video of an Iowa man giving testimony about being raised in a loving family by two women did go viral. So one perspective on virality can be described as common wisdom. As is usually the case, common wisdom has a nugget of truth behind it. But it’s also very limited and approximate.
The academic research on virality tells us a couple of things. Kevin Wallsten’s study of the Will.I.Am “Yes We Can” video found that there’s significant interplay between blogs and traditional news media in driving viewership. Karine Nahon’s research on viral videos in the 2008 election specifically zeroed in on the influential role of a few megablogs (DailyKos and Huffington Post, in particular) in driving viral views. Put another way, most viral videos don’t trace the path of “David After Dentist.” When hub sites with a large viewership highlight a video, attention is magnified. The Iowa testimony video was driven by MoveOn promoting it to the frontpage, posting it to Facebook and Twitter, and emailing their 5 million+ list.
But what content can or should a hub site emphasize? If the choices of a MoveOn or a Huffington Post drive virality, then what influences those choices? I would call that a third perspective on viral content – the organizational perspective. Daniel Mintz, a MoveOn staffer and Rutgers alum, kindly agreed to speak to my students last month. At one point in the discussion, he explained that MoveOn has a simple equation that they use to determine what goes viral. He drew it on the chalkboard: Virality = (see) x (share) x (come back). With any piece of content, the organization monitors how many people are clicking on the item to begin with, how many then share it with others, and how many of those others then click as well. This is data that they can gather, manipulate, test, and act upon. It informs their decisions, which in turn affect what goes viral, which in turn impacts common wisdom.
None of these perspectives is holistic. Each has limitations. And each deals with a different form of virality. Jokes about the Wallsten/Nahon concept of online virality wouldn’t be very funny. Studies of mass viewership trends cannot also dig into organizational choice. The equation that MoveOn relies upon is probably different than the one used by Huffington Post, and necessarily sacrifices sophistication for usability.
Any complete answer to questions about viral content online would have to start with “it depends on what sort of virality we’re talking about…”